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Multiple stresses may result in humanitarian crises and forced migration. Research in the northern drylands of Kenya addresses the continuum from voluntary to forced migration, adaptations to periodic stress, environmental vulnerability disrupting the social, economic and institutional fabric, indicators of an impending tipping point, and the role of social capital, governance structures and political economy. We propose a paradigm shift from ‘hot spots’ (location specific) to ‘hot systems’ (distributed networks), reflecting the social dynamics of space and tipping points.

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