COP29 unpacked: 8 critical topics driving the climate agenda in Baku

Here we present a breakdown of eight issues expected to play a large role in COP29 discussions, with articles related to each topic to help you understand more about the current playing field and the possible directions of each discussion.

Multiple Authors

4th Nov 2024
9 min read
2 Likes

The next UN climate conference, COP29, is set to take place in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, from 11 to 22 November. From securing climate finance to addressing the critical issue of loss and damage, this pivotal climate conference will shape global climate policy and action for years and decades to come.

This article provides an overview of eight crucial topics that are expected to dominate discussions in Baku – each of them representing key challenges and opportunities for action. For each topic we suggest further resources that you can dive into for more context and information.

Those eight topics include:

Climate finance
Loss and damage
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Emissions Reduction
The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
Unequal climate impacts and Locally Led Adaptation (LLA)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) and Indigenous rights
Carbon markets
Geopolitical context, conflicts and tensions

We extend our sincere thanks to Katherine Browne, Katy Harris, Richard Klein, Maya Rebermark and Zoha Shawoo from SEI for their invaluable time and insightful feedback in reviewing this article.

Climate finance

Billed as the “finance COP,” COP29 will focus heavily on establishing a new global climate finance goal – the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Much of the discussion in Azerbaijan will revolve around setting and defining this goal, particularly as it relates to scaling up financial support for developing countries. Currently, developed countries have committed to providing $100 billion annually to support climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. However, this falls significantly short of the estimated $2.4 trillion a year required to meet global climate goals. Key areas of debate will likely include the overall financial target, the timeline for mobilization, and the equitable distribution of financial responsibilities among countries.

Further reading:

What could the New Climate Finance Goal look like?: This piece highlights seven key elements of the NCQG which are under negotiation, and what outcomes of these negotiations could look like.
“Must-haves” for adaptation finance in the New Collective Quantified Goal: This brief outlines what the goal must include to ensure funding meets the objectives of sufficient, effective and equitable climate adaptation.
Enabling and financing Locally Led Adaptation (LLA): The paper outlines an approach to LLA planning and financing that involves local communities, governments, and the private sector.
Climate-resilient finance and investment: Framing paper: Learn about current efforts to align finance with climate-resilient development, as well as possible ways forward for defining, measuring and mobilizing adaptation-aligned finance.

Loss and damage

Continuing the focus on climate finance, loss and damage will be another critical topic at COP29. Building on the progress from COP28, where a Loss and Damage Fund was agreed upon, COP29 will focus on operationalizing the structure and scope of this fund. Though $700 million in pledges have been made, this amount falls short of what is needed to compensate low- and middle-income nations for the irreparable losses and damages caused by climate change. Estimates for future loss and damage are subject to great uncertainty. For example, Markandya & González-Eguino (2018) estimate that $290-580 billion could be needed every year by 2030. The Loss and Damage Collaboration has estimated $400 billion in annual costs.

Discussions at COP29 are expected to focus on increasing the financial contributions to the loss and damage fund, such as through new and innovative sources, to better support vulnerable nations. Countries will also decide on whether the NCQG will include a specific target for loss and damage.

Further reading:

What Is ‘Loss and Damage’ from climate change? 8 key questions on the history of loss and damage, how it might be financed, and the debate leading up to its operationalization.
Operationalizing finance for Loss and Damage: from principles to modalities: Explore this report providing information for crucial negotiations and discussions on loss and damage finance by exploring different options for how it can be operationalized.
Key messages on Loss and Damage at COP29: This article highlights key messages on loss and damage for COP29, focusing on the urgent need for financial support, fair compensation mechanisms, and actionable commitments to aid vulnerable communities affected by climate impacts.
Non-economic Loss and Damage: policy gaps and recommendations: This policy brief analyses the existing policy gaps concerning non-economic loss and damage and proposes recommendations for improvements.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Emissions Reduction

COP29 will be crucial as nations face the final opportunity to update their NDCs before the 2025 deadline. The 2023 Global Stocktake (GST) revealed that current NDCs fall short of the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. As a result, COP29 will be crucial in encouraging countries to intensify their climate goals and enhance the ambition reflected in their NDCs.

At COP29, representatives from 70 countries will meet to advance action on Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), which must be submitted by the end of the year and are a key component of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF). The ETF ensures that all countries provide clear and consistent data on their emissions reductions, climate adaptation measures, and the support they receive or provide, which will be critical for evaluating global progress and ensuring that climate pledges translate into real-world action.

Further reading:

Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake: The summary of the first global stocktake reporting on the current suitability of NDCs and how much more ambitious they need to be.
Whose climate priorities are reflected in the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework?: What does the ETF pertain to, and what is left out? Which countries does this reflect the priorities of?
Nationally Determined Contributions in Asia: Are governments recognizing the rights, roles and contributions of Indigenous Peoples?: This report synthesises the findings from 10 country-level reports which examine how the rights, roles and knowledge of indigenous men, women, youth, and persons with disabilities are addressed in national-level climate policies and plans.

The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)

At COP29, advancing operationalization of the GGA will be key, with a focus on enhancing global adaptive capacity, reducing vulnerability, and increasing resilience. The discussions will centre on the development of indicators for measuring progress achieved towards several targets on climate adaptation and resilience. These targets are outlined in the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, adopted during COP28.

NAPs will play a central role, as Parties negotiate recommendations to strengthen the process to formulate and implement these plans, which outline specific strategies to manage climate risks and build resilience. A key focus will be on adaptation finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building to ensure low- and middle-income countries have the resources to implement NAPs effectively.

A critical area of focus will also be transboundary climate risks, which impact multiple nations through international trade and financial flows, shared ecosystems, and regional climate disruptions. At last year’s COP28, Parties recognized for the first time the transboundary nature of climate change impacts. At COP29, it will be important for Parties to work towards greater cooperation to tackle these risks, recognizing that climate adaptation cannot be addressed in isolation.

Further reading:

Underfinanced. Underprepared. UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023: This report assesses progress in planning, financing and implementing adaptation actions around the world. It identifies seven ways to increase financing, including through domestic expenditure and international and private sector finance.
What’s next for adaptation? Twelve leading voices on adaptation weigh in on priorities post COP28: Twelve leading voices on climate adaptation share what they believe are the top priorities to address urgent adaptation needs worldwide.
Transboundary climate risks and adaptation in mountain areas: a brief for Parties and Observers to the UNFCCC: This brief highlights why it is crucial for transboundary climate risks and mountain areas to be accounted for across different negotiation tracks. It also lays out concrete recommendations for UNFCCC Parties and Observers on the road to COP29 and beyond.
Toolkit: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) for National Adaptation Plan processes: This toolkit is designed for government teams in developing countries leading their country’s NAP processes to provide flexible yet concrete guidance on the planning, implementation, and revision of MEL systems.

Unequal climate impacts and locally led adaptation (LLA)

Another key issue expected to be given increased recognition at COP29 is the disparity in climate change impacts across different socioeconomic groups. Discussions will focus on ensuring that financial and policy support reaches marginalized groups, including women, youth, and Indigenous populations.

Locally led adaptation (LLA) will be crucial in this context, as local communities often have the greatest understanding of their specific climate challenges. COP29 will likely see calls for increasing support for LLA initiatives, which empower communities to drive their own adaptation efforts with tailored solutions. This approach not only strengthens resilience but also ensures that adaptation strategies are contextually appropriate and sustainable.

Further reading:

The unjust climate: This report assembles a set of data from 24 low- and middle-income countries in five world regions to measure the differing effects of climate change on rural women, youth and people living in poverty.
Locally led adaptation: Promise, pitfalls, and possibilities: This article offers a nuanced understanding of the power and justice considerations required to make locally led adaptation useful for local communities and institutions, and to resolve the tensions between LLA and other development priorities.
Putting locally led climate adaptation principles into practice: IIED’s Aaron Acuda and Sushila Pandit explain why a clear framework, reformed funding mechanisms, co-created programmes and private sector engagement are vital for turning theory into action.
The role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation in Africa: This study documents evidence of the potential of Indigenous and local knowledge in reducing vulnerability to climate change and/or improving the resilience of communities.

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and Indigenous Rights

NbS will remain a key focus, as they offer a dual benefit of enhancing biodiversity and addressing climate challenges. COP29 will emphasize scaling up NbS projects such as reforestation, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable land use. As of 2019 around 62% of NDCs included NbS as adaptation actions. At COP29, focus is likely to fall upon increasing this percentage to benefit biodiversity while also tackling the climate crisis.

These solutions are also tied to Indigenous rights, as Indigenous communities are often stewards of ecosystems critical to biodiversity and climate regulation. Ensuring that these communities are given a central role in NbS strategies will be key to building successful adaptation projects.

Further reading:

Principles for just and equitable nature-based solutions: Explore the issues that must be addressed to help ensure that the design, governance and implementation of nature-based solutions (NbS) are just and equitable.
Assessing finance for nature-based solutions to climate change: Explore this assessment of funding for NbS aimed at low- and middle-income countries and learn about the extent to which this funding is being used effectively.
Indigenous-led Nature-based Solutions for the climate crisis: Insights from Canada: This article provides an international and national overview of climate change and biodiversity frameworks and is focused on emerging evidence of Indigenous leadership and collaborations in Canada.

Carbon markets

The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon markets, will be another focal point at COP29. Carbon markets, when functioning properly, can facilitate the exchange of carbon credits between nations, allowing countries to meet their climate commitments more flexibly. However, progress has been delayed due to disagreements over transparency and concerns about greenwashing. COP29 is anticipated to address these issues and potentially unlock the full potential of carbon markets as a tool for both mitigation and financing adaptation efforts.

Further reading:

Is there a role for carbon credits in the transition to a fair, net-zero future? Through TED Talks and conversations featuring scientists, CEOs, activists, politicians, artists, frontline community leaders, investors and more, this film offers a 360-degree view of carbon credits
Moving towards next generation carbon markets: observations from Article 6 pilots: An analysis of emerging trends and early experience with Article 6 implementation, and looking at how pilots are responding to the new challenges.
Navigating the Paris Agreement: A Closer Look at Articles 6.2 and 6.4 in the run-up to COP29: Assessing the current implementation of Article 6, and charting the way forward.

Geopolitical context, conflicts and tensions

The geopolitical landscape at COP29 is likely to be complex. Ongoing wars, tensions and conflicts, along with energy security concerns will create a complex backdrop for negotiations. Azerbaijan’s reliance on fossil fuels also raises questions about how this will influence its leadership role as COP29’s host. There will be high expectations for Azerbaijan to demonstrate climate leadership, despite its fossil fuel economy. Countries will need to navigate these geopolitical tensions while continuing to collaborate on ambitious climate action.

Further reading:

Synthesis report: Exploring the conflict blind spots in climate adaptation finance: This report investigates climate change adaptation programmes in fragile and conflict-affected situations, how such programmes could be improved and how adaptation finance could be increased.
How can climate finance work better for fragile and conflict-affected regions? Researchers at SPARC and UNDP share how smarter climate finance can support some of the most vulnerable people living with the impacts of both climate and insecurity to build their resilience.
Addressing climate change adaptation in fragile settings and conflict-affected countries: Lessons learned from the Adaptation Fund’s portfolio: an overview of the Fund’s experience and lessons learned from addressing climate change adaptation and strengthening long-term resilience in fragile and conflict-afflicted countries.
Climate Change adaptation beyond government controle: Opportunities and limitations: This report discusses strategies and challenges for implementing climate adaptation in conflict-prone or politically unstable regions where government control is limited, emphasizing community-led approaches and cooperation with non-state actors to enhance resilience under these complex conditions.

Conclusion

COP29 will be a critical moment for the global climate agenda. It will be an opportunity for nations to advance concrete solutions on loss and damage, adaptation, and finance, while raising ambition through updated NDCs. Success at COP29 depends on how well countries can mobilize funds, bridge the gap between promises and action, and build global cooperation despite geopolitical tensions.

These discussions will have far-reaching implications, particularly for vulnerable populations and developing nations that are disproportionately affected by the climate crisis.