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Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis

This study explores how climate-induced stressors, specifically rising temperatures, water stress and droughts, and floods and sea-level rise, have affected populations in the Global South, leading to voluntary and/or forced migration.
Multiple Authors
Credit: Djuulume via Wikimedia Commons

Summary

The authors conducted a systematic literature review to explore how climate-induced stressors, specifically rising temperatures, water stress and droughts, and floods and sea-level rise, have affected populations in the Global South, leading to voluntary and/or forced migration. They find that these stressors have displaced and profoundly impacted millions of people, resulting in both internal and transboundary migration. 

Climate-induced stressors often trigger migration through indirect pathways influenced by multiple intervening institutional, political, and socio-economic factors and programmatic and policy gaps. Effectively addressing challenges related to climate- induced migration necessitates adaptation strategies that adequately consider the impacts of these intervening factors while recognizing their differential effects on various socio-demographic groups.

This weADAPT article is an abridged version of the original text, which can be downloaded from the right-hand column. We highlight some of the article’s key messages below, but please access the original text for more comprehensive detail, full references, or to quote text. 

Introduction

Scientists predict ongoing global climate change to trigger adverse events affecting about 143 million people in the Global South by 2050, leading to various forms of migration and mobility. In the year 2020 alone, over 40.5 million people were forced to relocate, with 30.7 million of them being directly impacted by natural hazards. Floods and storms were responsible for the displacement of 14 million individuals each, with Asia and the Pacific being severely affected regions, experiencing substantial human displacement and damage to buildings and infrastructure.

While existing literature extensively examines climate-induced migration, there is a lack of studies considering the compounding impacts of multiple climate hazards on migration, mobility, and immobility. Hence, the primary aim of this study is to examine the influence of increasing temperatures, water stress and drought, floods, and sea-level rise—tripartite environmental factors driven by climate change—on migration patterns in the Global South.

Through a systematic review, the study aims to answer the following questions:

  • Which climate-induced hazards and stressors have been extensively studied in the literature on the Global South?
  • How do these hazards and stressors affect migration in Global South countries?
  • What are the mediating factors that either impede or promote climate change- induced migration?

Methodology

This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the existing academic literature on climate migration in the Global South. The data for this study were systematically gathered from peer-reviewed articles, selected based on their relevance to the research questions. See more information about this study’s Methods on p.7 of the article.

Climate impacts in the Global South by region

Climate Migrants in the Global South by 2050. Note: According to the World Bank Groundswell Report, around 143 million people will be displaced by 2050: 86 million from Sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million from South Asia and the Pacific, and 17 million from LAC.

South Asia

South Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including river flooding, sea-level rise, and extreme temperatures, which exacerbate both internal and cross-border migration. These impacts pose significant threats to food supplies, livestock, land, and crops, resulting in severe food crises that can trigger migration. The region’s increasing urbanization and economic growth further contribute to migration, placing additional strain on urban sustainability by exacerbating congestion and diverting already scarce resources to support migrants.

MENA Region

In the MENA region, climate change has already led to water scarcity, desertification, sea-level rise, and loss of biodiversity, resulting in soil degradation, food insecurity, and salt intrusion into aquifers, which have triggered the displacement of people. The Gulf Cooperation Council region currently hosts around 30 million cross-country migrants who have primarily moved due to economic hardships and work opportunities in the energy and infrastructure sectors. However, as climate change intensifies due to the increasing use of fossil fuels, it is anticipated that migration into the oil-rich Gulf region will increase.

Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, densely populated coastal cities in countries like Nigeria, Tanzania, and Mozambique are witnessing seasonal sea level rises, resulting in floods that affect many people. In West Africa, countries such as Burkina Faso, Niger, Gambia, Mali, Sudan, and Senegal are experiencing droughts caused by rising temperatures. Severe droughts in Madagascar have also forced many people to leave their homes in search of more habitable lands. As agricultural systems become increasingly unsustainable, people will be compelled to migrate. Models predict that by 2050, between 28.3 and 71.1 million people will be forced to migrate within the continent. Many of these migrants will gravitate towards urban informal settlements, where the associated safety and health risks are growing.

Pacific Islands

This region faces compounding challenges from rising sea levels, coastal flooding, erosion, and water scarcity. While migration from many Pacific Islands is inevitable in the event of complete inundation due to sea level rise, there are people living in the region who are unable to migrate due to financial constraints, raising concerns about those who may be trapped in unsafe situations. Planned relocation is often discussed as a potential solution to the loss of habitable land in the Pacific Islands. However, vulnerable populations are likely to face compounded risks rather than alleviation through such processes.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin American and the Caribbean states are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including mega-droughts, heatwaves, melting glaciers, and torrential rains and floods. Glaciers in the Andes region have lost between thirty and fifty percent of their area in just forty years, leading to water scarcity. Approximately 27% of the population in the region lives along coastlines, where sea levels rise faster than the global average. Continued deforestation of the Amazon rainforest threatens local and global climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Models predict that between 5.8 and 10.6 million people will be internally displaced within the region by 2050.

Impacts of climate-induced stressors on migration in the Global South

Increasing temperatures

Increasing temperatures are positively associated with migration. A 1ºC temperature increase leads to a 1.9% increase in global migration. Most places around the world have already experienced increases in temperature with impacts such as glaciers melting, floods, droughts and extreme events. It is projected that further temperature increases between 1oC and 6oC will exacerbate these issues, leading to increased transboundary migration.

Water stress and drought

The literature review highlights that 103 water scarcity and drought events have occurred in the Global South since 2021. Landlocked countries and those located in arid and semi-arid lands are the most impacted by water stress. Most of these migrations are internal, as people move to more habitable areas within their countries due to restrictions on external migration in some destination countries.

Migration driven by water stress tends to occur more gradually in rural areas than in urban areas. Such migrations are a result of insufficient resources to cope with reduced agricultural productivity, income, and subsistence capacity. In high-risk areas such as coastal regions prone to sea-level rise, large populations in Asia face water scarcity and other challenges during disasters, prompting migration.

Floods and sea level rise

Floods and sea-level rise occurred 97 and 126 times, respectively, in the Global South in 2021, according to the literature review. These events are primarily associated with increased precipitation and the melting of mountains and polar glaciers. Flooding is a major consequence of climate change, forcing people to flee flood-prone areas to avoid loss of life and property damage. Floods caused by climate change can expose people to diseases like dengue fever, malaria, and cholera. Displacement is a common outcome, although many people have developed resilience due to the short-term nature of these floods.

Rising sea levels, like floods, are a significant driver of migration for coastal populations. It is estimated that coastal risks will increase over the 21st century due to rising sea levels, disrupting people’s lives, cultural and natural heritage, livelihoods, ecosystems, food security, and infrastructure. Worldwide, about 450 million individuals are living at low elevations (below 20 m) and near coastlines (within 20 km). It is expected that by the end of this century, sea levels will rise by between 30 and 150 cm in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in the sub- mergence of most of the Maldives, as well as cities like Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh.

Implications and recommendations

There is a growing need to provide support for households that have made the decision to migrate, as well as to implement adaptation strategies for those who are unable or choose not to relocate. Migration becomes a personal adaptation strategy when adapting in place is no longer an option. It is predicted that by 2050, migration as an adaptation to climate change will be implemented by 200 million people, either voluntarily or forcibly. Meanwhile, some individuals and families may be unable and unwilling to relocate, forcing them to face the challenges of climate change.

Governments must strive to provide sources of livelihood for the relocated communities, although many developing countries struggle to implement such actions due to limited resources. One intervention that governments can employ to assist communities in coping with climate migration is the relocation of affected people to better and more habitable locations. However, relocation requires resources and should be adequately planned with input from affected populations to avoid unanticipated challenges.

It is essential to identify localities at risk of depopulation to effectively coordinate migration and relocation. Potential relocation areas for displaced individuals must be extensively assessed to ensure they can sustain increased populations without further hardships. Countries must share the responsibility of planning, identifying suitable relocation areas, and providing support to relocated individuals in host societies. Additionally, collaboration between origin and destination countries is crucial for planning future climate change-induced migration in a way that benefits both nations.

Public-private partnerships, philanthropic donors, and international organizations should establish and provide increased support to people living in areas prone to sea-level rise, flooding, and drought. This support should also extend to those who have limited financial and adaptive resources to avert prolonged displacement and migration. However, developing countries must still take prompt actions and measures to combat climate change and its effects, and consider climate-induced migration a critical problem that must be addressed immediately within their countries and regions.

The development and implementation of measures such as long-term planning, effective strategies for absorption of shocks and rapid recovery, and innovative adaptation solutions can contribute to enhancing the resilience of communities and avoiding the negative impacts of migration. Strengthening planning, absorption, recovery, and adaptation capacities requires concerted efforts across different sectors. Cooperation with countries in the Global North is essential, including financial support and technology transfer. Such cooperation can strengthen partnerships and contribute to achieving global goals (SDG 17).

Suggested citation

Almulhim, A. I., Nagle Alverio, G., Sharifi, A., Shaw, R., Huq, S., Mahmud, M. J., Ahmad, S., & Abubakar, I. R. (2024). Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in-depth analysis. npj Climate Action, 3(47), 1-12. DOI: 10.1038/s44168-024-00133-1

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