Faced with floods: shifting livelihood strategies among South Sudan’s pastoralists

Examining shifts in livelihood portfolios in South Sudan’s Unity State

Conflict and climate shocks are driving rapid change within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood systems of many South Sudanese households. Recent prolonged and widespread flooding has caused extensive crop and livestock losses and a reorientation of the livelihood strategies upon which communities are most reliant. 

However, there is a dearth of evidence about the specific ways pastoralists and agro-pastoralists have adjusted their livelihood strategies, and similarly about the extent to which these shocks – and communities’ responses to them – are likely to spell permanent versus temporary changes to the broader pastoral livelihood system. Some donors and implementers in South Sudan are asking: What is the future of pastoral livelihood systems amidst such volatility?

This report begins to address this question by examining shifts in livelihood portfolios in South Sudan’s Unity State. The authors draw on qualitative participatory rural appraisal methods to examine the changing balance of food and income sources at the community level as a proxy for livelihood strategies, and consider potential implications for the future of pastoral livelihoods.

Methodology

The report draws on the findings from semi-structured one-to-one interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) conducted during March and April 2023 with 80 men and women engaged in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood activities in South Sudan’s Rubkona County. FGDs employed participatory rural appraisal approaches, including a proportional piling activity in which participants used a consensus-based approach to indicate the dynamics related to the relative importance of different food and income sources to their broader community. Interviews allowed researchers to obtain a deeper understanding of key topics discussed in the FGDs, with a more targeted focus on household-level dynamics.

Findings

• Compounded shocks over the past decade in the study locations have included conflict (i.e., cattle rustling, territorial disputes that fall along ethnic lines, and broader political conflicts), displacement and climate shocks – and most recently, prolonged flooding. These have precipitated a steep decline in livestock holdings, and accelerated livelihood diversification and fragmentation. Communities have become dependent on low-return activities, mostly around natural resource exploitation and food aid.
• Livelihood changes have contributed to shifts in gender and social norms within pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood systems. Many women now engage in labour-intensive tasks and increasingly provide for their households through diversified economic activities.
• Despite communities now being less reliant on livestock production for food and income, and the perception of increased risk of owning livestock since the floods, many study participants highlighted the continued importance of cattle to their cultural, economic and social systems. Many remain hopeful that the flood waters will recede and they will be able to return to mixed agro-pastoralism.
• Animal production currently plays a reduced role in household food and income generation, but this does not necessarily mean that pastoralism is in decline or that current livelihood adaptations are permanent. Pastoral systems are resilient, having evolved to function in variable environments. If policy and climate conditions allow, pastoral populations in Unity State could resume their reliance on livestock production. However, whether they choose to do so will depend on resources, preferences and experiences in the interim years.

Policy implications

Whether and when livestock-based production systems will return to being a primary source of food and income for most households in Rubkona County depends largely on three important questions:

• Will conditions be conducive to pastoralism return? A resurgence of pastoral livelihoods will depend, however, on a further reduction in flood levels to allow access to grazing areas and transhumant routes. For the pastoral system to be able to rebound fully, stakeholders will need to invest in sustained peace and to adopt and promote pro-pastoral policies. Such policies must ensure pastoral mobility and access to resources despite trends of privatisation, commercialisation and population growth.
• If conditions return to normal, to what extent will people resume pastoral production? Peoples’ future aspirations and current priorities will continue to change with shifting patterns of risk and opportunity in the drylands. Many interviewees expressed concerns over the long-term sustainability of pastoralism. For some, shifts in activities may be a temporary reaction to shocks, rather than a permanent change. Others are unlikely to resume the difficult lifestyle of pastoralism, although some respondents did describe an intention to return to livestock keeping as soon as conditions allow.
• How successful will recovery be, and how long will it take? Recovery in a post-shock period will vary with household resources and capabilities. Growing inequity of animal ownership coupled with increased privatisation of resources makes it even more difficult for the poor to get a foot back into livestock production or to grow existing herds to sustainable levels. The combined effects of impoverishment, conflict and displacement have undermined customary social safety mechanisms, including loans of animals to help rebuild herds. These factors create an environment in which recovery will likely be uneven and non-linear.

Suggested citation

Humphrey, A., Stites, E., Gai, T, J., Lony, N. 2023. Faced with floods: shifting livelihood strategies among South Sudan’s pastoralists. SPARC Technical Paper.

Article authors: Alex Humphrey Elizabeth Stites Thudan James Gai Nyachar Lony