Farmer responses to solar irrigation in India: Agent-based modelling to understand sustainable transitions 

This weADAPT article is an abridged version of the original text, which can be downloaded from the right-hand column. We highlight some of the report’s key messages below, but please access the original text for more comprehensive detail, full references, or to quote text. 

Introduction

Solar irrigation is being promoted in India to address the twin problems of irrigation access and groundwater overexploitation. However, the potential impacts of this step are not fully understood. A majority of the farmers in India depend on rainfall for their livelihoods because they lack access to irrigation. They are completely dependent on the rains, making them more vulnerable to climate variability. They also only get a single crop during the monsoon; their land is unproductive for most of the year. There is a looming crisis of rapid depletion of groundwater threatening farmers who access wells to irrigate their land.

Solar irrigation has the potential to address both these problems. Firstly, it increases access to irrigation by providing energy to farmers who are not connected to the grid or use expensive diesel pump sets. Secondly, it also works to curb groundwater abstraction through net metering, where farmers can draw the groundwater, they need to irrigate and sell the excess electricity back to the grid and earn money through feed-in tariffs (FiTs). However, the net impact on groundwater is unpredictable because it depends on farmers’ crop choices.

This study uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to understand farmer choices and transitions before and after solar irrigation. It suggests that sustainable transitions are physically possible, but deep lock-ins in agriculture and biophysical constraints limit changes. Case studies in different regions highlight specific challenges and potential outcomes.

This report provides valuable insights into the complexities of implementing solar irrigation in India and the need for context-specific strategies to achieve desired outcomes.

Methodology

ABM is used to understand what agent responses are likely to be in terms of crop choice and what the impact is on farmers’ incomes and district-level groundwater use and status.

The agent-based model accounts for the economics of farmer choices with every crop transition and answers the question: ‘should you consider this crop choice?’ In addition, expert stakeholder consultations from the regions we selected allowed us to understand the riskiness of crop transitions; we accounted for factors like market risk and volatility, procurement systems and cultural factors in a qualitative assessment of risk based on these interviews. 

Six district-level case studies were conducted in Bathinda (Punjab), West Champaran (Bihar), Bengaluru Rural (Karnataka), Anand and Botad (Gujarat) and Nadia (West Bengal) to understand constraints farmers face in different agrarian contexts. The typology framework looked at availability of land, water and energy for irrigation. Two districts were picked in each of the three typologies — land constrained, energy constrained, and water constrained. To gather information, the study uses a mix of datasets and stakeholders consultations (see details p.34).

For each case study, the results are presented as follows:

1. Options available to farmers, and the choice most likely to be made.

2. Collective impact of individual agent decisions each district’s groundwater abstraction status.

Key learnings:

• In Bathinda, Punjab, farmers are likely to continue growing paddy-wheat and cotton-potato, given strong government procurement systems. A sustainable transition to a less water-intensive crop will require the setting up of strong market linkages for alternatives like kinnow (a citrus tree). Otherwise, the groundwater status in most parts of the district will continue to remain critical and overexploited.
• In West Champaran, Bihar, we assumed that solar irrigation is likely to replace diesel pump sets. Since we also assumed that they are not connected to the grid, there is no income earned from the sale of energy to the grid. Here too, farmers are likely to continue with current cropping systems, with the inclusion of a third summer crop like minor pulses, which results in a marginal increase in income and abstraction. However, aquifers in most parts of Bihar have not been overexploited yet, which means continuing current cropping systems can still be viewed as a sustainable choice. It is also important to note that adoption of solar may not happen if it reduces income levels compared to current incomes, as is likely to happen in the case of sugarcane farmers. 
• In Bengaluru Rural, Karnataka, finger millet (ragi) farmers are likely to switch over to agrivoltaics (sale of solar power with no associated irrigation), if subsidized, while arecanut farmers will continue growing it given its strong private procurement system. Most parts of this district have been categorized as critical and overexploited. Switching from water-intensive crops like arecanut, rice and sugarcane will be critical to ensure groundwater sustainability. 
• In Anand, Gujarat, the dairy industry dictates the crops grown. In addition to current crop choices, we are likely to see the inclusion of a third summer crop for fodder. Groundwater levels in most parts of the district have been rising; hence continuing to grow current crops is likely to be sustainable. 
• In Botad, Gujarat, farmers grow a combination of cotton and groundnut during kharif (autumn) season. Changing this combination, in addition to growing wheat 11 or chickpea in the rabi (spring) season is likely to keep the district’s groundwater status sustainable. Agrivoltaics are also a real possibility in this district. 
• In Nadia, West Bengal, farmers grow rice across all three seasons, and are likely to switch over to growing rice during kharif and lentils in the rabi seasons. This is a far more sustainable option compared to the present cropping pattern as the water requirement declines drastically and farmers may be able to earn better by switching from rice to other crops like lentils. 

Implications

While solar irrigation offers options to circumvent the political non-feasibility of doing away with some policies pertaining to agriculture (Minimum Support Price – MSP) and energy (free or highly subsidized electricity), it will still be inadequate to change farmers’ crop choices. But the situation is not hopeless. For solar irrigation to result in crop diversification and the cultivation of crops that fit in the water budgets of specific regions, sociotechnical evolutions also need to occur concurrently. This means that the entire system ranging from preproduction to consumption will have to evolve for true change to take effect. Changes in agricultural policies, such as the introduction of MSP for less water-intensive crops, and energy policies, such as the removal of electricity subsidies that allows farmers in states like Punjab free or highly subsidized access to the grid, can pave the way for truly impactful and long-lasting change stemming from the introduction of solar irrigation. 

Suggest citation

Srinivasan, V. Neelakantan, A. (2023). Farmer responses to solar irrigation in India: Agent-based modeling to understand sustainable transitions. WELL LABS Report.