What global warming of 1.5°C and higher means for Namibia

Introduction

The Paris Agreement has a goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. Understanding the local-level impacts of these global temperature targets is crucial for informing climate change adaptation needs and actions. To date, mitigation pledges by nations fall far short of what is needed, with the world on track to warm by 3.2°C by the end of the century.

This infographic* produced by the Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR) project sumarises the impacts of warming scenarios from 1.5-3°C in Namibia.

*Access the full infographic from the right-hand column.

Methods and Tools

The methodology behind this analysis can be found in the ASSAR working paper: Determining what global warming of 1.5°C and higher means for the semi-arid regions of Botswana, Namibia, Ghana, Mali, Kenya and Ethiopia: A description of ASSAR’s methods of analysis.

Impacts of 1.5°C and higher in Namibia

• For Namibia, local warming and drying will be greater than the global average.
  • So, even a 1.5°C increase in global temperature will have severe local impacts, negatively affecting water supply, agriculture, health, and other vulnerable sectors.
• ​Groundwater recharge rates are set to decrease by at least 33%at 1.5°C, with agricultural productivity also declining.
• The 1.5°C threshold could be breached within the next decade, and the 2°C threshold the decade after.
  • This means there is an urgent need to accelerate Namibia’s adaptation responses.