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Climate change modelling and analyses for Mozambique

About the report

This report uses historical data and climate projections to assess how climate change may affect the operations of Mozambique’s Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Disaster Management Institute).

The climate messages presented here are based on analysing: observed data collected from 32 weather stations across Mozambique since 1960; the outputs from 7 global circulation models (GCM) i.e. projections of future climate conditions; and the results of downscaling these GCM outputs to a number of station locations (using the observed data record to do this) for 2 periods in the future: 2046-2065 and 2080-2100. The climate impact messages are developed out of the results from various impact models (flood and crop-suitability), run using the observed climate data and the downscaled projected climate data (i.e. scenarios of future climate over Mozambique for middle and end of this century).

Please note that this work only covers the biophysical aspects related to climate and climate impacts and does not touch upon the social and institutional factors that result in differential vulnerability and thereby the risk these climate conditions and climate impacts pose to different groups of people

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